واگرایی و نحوه استفاده از آن در تجارت

اگر مرتباً ما را دنبال کرده اید ، باید توجه داشته باشید که چند بار از کلمه "واگرایی" در تحلیل های خود استفاده می کنیم ، معمولاً هنگام انتظار یک روند برگشت. واگرایی هنگامی اتفاق می افتد که قیمت به یک افراط جدید برسد ، در حالی که خط شاخص ، که نیروی پشت حرکت را اندازه گیری می کند ، انجام نمی شود. این بدان معناست که با وجود بالا یا پایین جدید ، روند فعلی خسته شده و ممکن است به زودی به پایان برسد. شاخص های نوسان ساز بهترین ابزار برای مشخص کردن واگرایی هستند. به نظر ما ، شاخص قدرت نسبی یا RSI ، MACD و Momentum بهترین هستند.

تجزیه و تحلیل فنی با دیدن یک نمودار به بهترین وجه درک می شود ، بنابراین بیایید مستقیم به آن برویم. مورد زیر واگرایی نزولی با RSI بین دو تاپ آخر بیت کوین را نشان می دهد.< Pan> واگرایی و نحوه استفاده از آن در تجارت In that case, Elliott Wave analysis suggested we should get ready for a significant pullback, since every five-wave impulse is a followed by a three-wave correction. The bearish odds were further improved by the RSI, which allowed us to recognize a bearish divergence between wave (v) and wave (iii). Wave (v) exceeds the top of wave (iii) in terms of price, but the RSI fails to achieve a new extreme. That is a divergence . The chart below shows what the price of bitcoin did next. Bitcoin plunged from $1350 to as low as $891, following the SEC’s decision to stop two bitcoin ETFs from being created. Fortunately, Elliott Wave and the RSI divergence waed us about it. That is how you spot a divergence within an uptrend. The chart of GBPCAD below demonstrates a MACD divergence in a downtrend. This time, the five-wave patte was pointing south, so the three-wave correction was supposed to take the pair higher. In addition, the MACD indicator made a double bullish divergence visible. As you can see, the indicator’s lowest bottom corresponded to the low of wave (3) of III. It failed to reach new depths in waves (5) of III and V, suggesting a major recovery might follow. GBPCAD rose from 1.5736 to as high as 1.7339, giving us another reason to continue using oscillators, in order to support the analysis. But does this mean we could use a divergence as a trading signal. Definitely not. Calling tops or bottoms remains extremely risky , no matter how many indicators suggest the trend is about to change its direction. The above-shown examples might be very impressive, but keep in mind that the market could always ignore the technical indicators and simply continue in the same direction. Doubt it? Take a look at the chart of the German DAX. The DAX just keeps rising, despite the fact that the RSI started diverging three months ago. That is why traders should not base their trading decisions solely on indicators. All they do is indicate that the current trend is ruing out of gas. Spotting a divergence does not mean the road is closed. It is more like a “proceed with caution” or “ignore at your own risk” sign.